The Decision Board
CME FedWatch, 16 Sep 2026. Current: hike 92.3% / hold 7.7%, as of 15 Sep 2026 12:37 CT. Path into the print: Jackson Hole 56% · Waller 55% · 10 Sep 62% · post-CPI 87%. Dot plot from the June 17, 2026 SEP.
FRED DGS10. Observation 11 Sep 2026: 4.96%. Updated 14 Sep 2026, 3:16 p.m. CDT.
90 Days to Wednesday
The ninety days from Warsh’s June debut to Trump in Ireland — the events that put a hike on Wednesday’s calendar.
The Market Already Tightened
Oil, consumer prices, and the long end have already done the work.
West Texas Intermediate. Gasoline added 3.9% to August CPI. The textbook is to look through oil. Core CPI did not give Warsh that alibi.
August core CPI month-on-month, a tenth hot. Services ex-housing +0.5%, the largest monthly gain of 2026. Inflation has now spent more than five years above 2%.
The 10-year is charging extra for a $40 trillion fiscal stock, doubled AI long-term debt, and a chair who will not map the next meeting.
The other side of the ledger is why one-and-done is still a house view: average hourly earnings at 3.1% year-over-year have slipped under CPI, so real wages are negative; participation has drifted from 62.6% toward 61.6%. The official sector has not called this labor market overheated. A cycle would lean on a foundation the data have not built.
Warsh’s Vise
Warsh has one vote of twelve. He is boxed in by a president who wants cheaper money, a bond market that will punish another shrug, and a committee that has not yet agreed the data force a hike.
The president
Trump picked Warsh, praised his independence at the swearing-in, and is now asking for the world’s lowest borrowing costs weeks before a midterm. Hassett: the president will not be “super happy” about a hike and will still “defend the independence of Kevin Warsh.” A courtesy, not a put.
The bond market
Jackson Hole was the make-good for July. A hold — or a hike followed by another shrug — is a second communication failure. Maurice Obstfeld: the Fed is in a no-win, the president’s wrath or diminished credibility with consequences for inflation later.
The committee
Waller entered the blackout more willing to wait. Warsh discounts a single good summer and asks whether the trend has changed. August did not change it. If he waits for Waller, investors will ask who actually chairs the meeting.
“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”Kevin Warsh · Jackson Hole · 28 Aug 2026
“We should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world, regardless of their formulas.”Donald Trump, to reporters · Irish Open, Doonbeg · 13 Sep 2026
How Many Hikes?
September 25 bp is the consensus. The fight is how many more: one, two, or three from here.
Houses with unconfirmed post-CPI paths (Citi, Barclays, BNP, Wells) are omitted. Bank of America’s 75 bp calendar was set in June and is carried as the hawkish marker.
If They Hike: The Record
Widely expected first 25 bp prints, from the prior close.
Session closes, yfinance. Gold starts 2004. March 2022 rallied: 25 bp against a 50 bp scare.
The median cycle-start 1 Day for the S&P 500 is a shrug, not a crash. The 1 Month window is where the sample splits: 2015 leaked into a growth scare; 2022 leaked into a much larger cycle and a 10-year that eventually ran 67 bp. A priced 25 bp print, by itself, does not end an equity bull market. The second and third hikes — and a disorderly 10-year — are the events that change the beta.
Trade Playbook
Watch the front end in the first thirty minutes after 2:00 p.m. Then listen for whether Warsh will say anything about the next meeting. He has spent the summer training you not to expect that sentence.
| Asset | A · No map | B · Cycle | C · Hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Sold event, then range | Wilson 10% if the 10-year goes disorderly | Multiples compress on uncertainty |
| Nasdaq-100 | High-beta if term premium keeps climbing | Duration takes the hit | Policy-error premium |
| U.S. 10-year | Still a credibility auction | Bear-flatten if the path is mapped | Term premium gaps |
| Dollar / gold | Mixed | Dollar bid; gold split | Dollar softer, gold bid |
Positioning risk is not “they hike.” Positioning risk is they hike and still will not tell you if they will hike again. That is the Warsh product. Wednesday is the first time the product has a price on it.