APPLE EVENT PREVIEW

Surprise and shine.

Ternus's first iPhone event comes with a foldable.

The lineup

iPhone 18 Pro — Camera upgrades. A20 Pro.

iPhone 18 Pro Max — Battery in focus.

Foldable — New premium tier. Base models wait until spring.

The foldable

7.8"

Inner display. About 5.5 inches folded.

Since the X — First new iPhone shape in nearly a decade.

The Street

BullsBears

CallMS OverweightKeyBanc Underweight

Target$360$250

The eventBiggest since the XNegative catalyst

Units6.5M foldables, $14B80M phones, not 91M

Price, units, revenue

Raise $200 to hold 40% margins

Ship 80 million, not 91

The foldable

has to fill the gap

See how AAPL moved after iPhone events

Timeline

Last form change

When Apple last changed the iPhone's shape

The iPhone X was the last real form-factor change: all-screen, Face ID, $999, and a November 3 ship date — six weeks later than a normal iPhone. The tape sold the news that afternoon. Shares ran to $163.75 as Cook started talking iPhone, then slid to $160.86, −0.4%, on the delay, the sticker, and a Face ID demo that failed on stage.

The holiday quarter was the X’s real print. Units fell 1% to 77.3 million; iPhone revenue rose 13% to $61.6 billion on a $796 ASP, up from $694. Cook said it was the top-selling iPhone every week after it shipped. Fewer phones, more dollars — that mix is what this week’s price hike is asking the market to believe again.

Visuals · Price and units

Launch prices

Two-quarter iPhone builds

iPhone 17 Pro $1,099 and Pro Max $1,199 are Apple's Sept. 9, 2025 U.S. starting prices, 256GB. Street e is KeyBanc: 18 Pro $1,249, Pro Max $1,399, Fold/Ultra $2,199. Morgan Stanley's foldable base case is $2,399 for 512GB.

Two-quarter builds are KeyBanc: iPhone 18 in FY26 Q4 plus FY27 Q1, about 80 million, versus about 91 million a year earlier. Mix and ASP are expected to offset some of the unit drop.

Impact

Company

AAPLMixed
Ternus's first iPhone event, a foldable, and a price hike that has to hold both units and 40% iPhone margins.
TSMUp
A20 Pro on 2nm is the Pro upgrade. Foldable volume still runs through TSMC.
MUUp
Cook called memory a hundred-year flood. Higher NAND and DRAM prices are why Apple is lifting the iPhone sticker.
QCOMMixed
iPhone 18 Pro is expected to use Apple's own C2 modem. That is less Qualcomm content on the flagship.

What to watch

The price list

KeyBanc: 18 Pro $1,249 (+$150), Pro Max $1,399 (+$200), Fold/Ultra $2,199. Morgan Stanley: Pro models +$200 like-for-like, foldable 512GB $2,399, 2TB $3,199 — enough, the bank says, to hold ~40% iPhone gross margin.

Foldable supply

Morgan Stanley: shipments start October or early November. About 6.5 million units in the December quarter, ~$14 billion, 16% of that quarter's iPhone sales. H2 2026 builds 7–8 million; first-cycle as many as 20 million.

Morgan Stanley vs KeyBanc

Erik Woodring stays Overweight, $360: most consequential iPhone launch since the X. Brandon Nispel stays Underweight, $250: the event is a negative catalyst either way Apple prices it.

Next print · Oct. 29

Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results. First look at whether the new price list is showing up in ASP without a hole in units.

Your call

Can Apple raise iPhone prices and still grow?

AInvest Research

The iPhone X already ran this play: units down 1% in the holiday quarter, iPhone revenue up 13% on a $796 ASP. Morgan Stanley has the foldable at $14 billion in December, 16% of iPhone sales, and says +$200 on the Pro holds ~40% iPhone gross margin. Rothschild took the target to $400 on that mix.

KeyBanc sees 80 million iPhone 18 builds in two quarters versus 91 million last year, and calls Wednesday a negative catalyst either way Apple prices it. Underweight, $250, against a stock near $320. A sticker shock that stretches the upgrade cycle also hits the installed base that Services needs.